The GOP is dying. It hasn’t been as noticeable until around 2012, (also the rise of the tea party, which I don’t think is a coincidence), but it’s been happening, slowly but surely. The last time the GOP won the White House from Democratic incumbent and won the popular vote was 1980, over 36 years ago, and since then, President George H.W. Bush, riding the “Reagan wave” won election in 1988, but lost a second term to President Bill Clinton.
George W. Bush won in 2000, but failed to secure the popular vote, and won reelection as an incumbent, which is hardly a feat. In 2016, Donald Trump managed to win the electoral college (likely due to the skewed geographic concentration of liberal and conservative voters, respectively), yet lost the popular vote. This shows that since Reagan, the GOP has been unable to effectively win elections on their own merit, and in the last 16 years, have relied nearly exclusively on the electoral college, which itself is a flawed, partisan system that fails to accurately do it’s constitutionally prescribed job of making educated, informed decisions, and acts merely as a rubber stamp, and fails to accurately represent the people of this nation or pick leaders in the way our founders intended them to.
To understand how the GOP managed to crawl across the finish line this year, we’ve got to look at the past 16 years. By the end of Bush’s term in 2009, Congress was entirely controlled by Democrats. Currently, Republicans control Congress, and in all likelihood, will continue to do so when he leaves office in a month. This is a pattern that has been going on for decades: At the end of an incumbent’s administration, the opposing party will have gained control of Congress, and often the Presidency. This is a clear pattern that seems to replicate itself every new administration. But focusing on the past 8 years, the Republicans managed to gain the house in 2010, and the senate in 2014. This was no fault of Obama’s; the GOP’s main goal was to obstruct President Obama as much as possible, cause dysfunction within Congress, and then blame this on the President and the Democrats. They have not been interested in governing at all. However, their plans worked. They created a radicalized faction called the “tea party”, and began the era of misinformation and false news. Unfortunately, this has all happened because for 8 years, the Republicans have had plenty of time to criticize Obama and blame him, even if he’s not fully responsible. They’ve made him out to be the demon, when in fact, under his policies, America has been recovering from the recession we experienced under Bush.
On November 8, 2016, the states (not the people) elected Donald Trump to the Presidency (likely with the help of Russia and the FBI). While this may create the illusion that the GOP is still strong and healthy, in reality, this only further speeds up their demise. Perhaps if Hillary had won, they’d have lived to fight another election. If Hillary had won, they’d have the opportunity to look at what they’ve done wrong the past 4 years, and would have another 4 years to do it. They’d also have gotten another 4 years (at least) to criticize Hillary and the democrats for any issues in the government that might come up. They’d be incredibly likely to retain control of Congress and potentially win the Presidency in 2020. Unfortunately, Trump’s election prevents them from doing that. Aside from the many, many scandals and issues that he’s tied to, The spotlight is on the GOP now; they’ve got nearly full control of the Government, and will bear the full brunt of the blame when they inevitably screw up. For 4 years, the Democrats will be recovering, and pinning the blame on the GOP whenever they can. This will add up, and in 2018, you can expect the GOP to lose the Senate, if not the House as well (in fact, in 2016, the GOP lost seats in both chambers. Not enough to lose the majority, but enough to sow seeds of uncertainty regarding 2018 Along with winning the popular vote, the Democrats effectively won this election, even if they don’t get control of either house or the White House). Come 2020, Donald Trump will be the first incumbent in nearly 30 years to lose re-election, if not the GOP nomination itself. This is without considering the many issues the GOP already has, including being out of touch with Americans, and the millions of new millennials voting in 2018 and 2020. The GOP may be laughing now, but in 4 years, they’ll be questioning how they lost, and this will be the answer. And if the Democrats play their cards right, we can retain control of the government for years to come.